A Christmas message to Peter Zeihan (on Ireland)
Ho ho ho
Peter Zeihan is a well-known American geopolitical analyst. He is a ferocious peddler of somewhat dramatic and apocalyptic geopolitical forecasts. I’ve studied his work for years now and indeed there are many elements I agree with. Saying that, the man regularly shoots from the hip while omitting glaringly obvious facts that contradict his viewpoint, all to arrive at some predetermined view of how world-events will unfold. This tendency to jam a square-peg into a round-hole only serves to dilute his authority and suggests one should take his other ideas with a fistful of salt. Case and point; his recent commentary on Ireland.
Peter has rarely mentioned Ireland in his previous work which is why his YouTube video “Ireland Needs a New Game Plan”, needless to say, caught my attention. For this article I will diverge from my usual format and instead deliver a counterargument to Zeihan’s views on Ireland.
To set the tone, I will be swimming against the current here as some prominent Irish figures such as David McWilliams were quick to rally around Peter’s bombastic video and viewpoints on Ireland.
Straight off the bat Peter begins the video with a complete misfire, stating Ireland’s “cultural development has been somewhat stunted and this is part of why the food is so bad”. This opening statement in a piece of geopolitical analysis is the equivalent of Max Verstappen putting the foot to the floor at the starting light of a Grand Prix only to slam into the rear wall as the car was in reverse.
For a small nation, Irish culture is far reaching. Irish culture has notably impacted the arts with the literature of Joyce, Beckett and Wilde, music with U2 and Shane MacGowan and even cinema with the landscape’s inclusion in recent pieces such as Game of Thrones and Star Wars. This is not to mention, our standalone unparalleled sporting culture of GAA and our equally unmatched world-famous drinking culture with Guinness, Jameson, Irish Pubs and of course our most famous cultural export - St. Patrick’s day. If Peter thinks our uniquely Irish cultural development has been “somewhat stunted”, I’d have to question his references.
Regarding his subjective view on the quality of our food – the man has clearly never tasted a deli chicken fillet roll or a spice bag after a feed of pints. But seriously, food quality doesn’t have much to do with geopolitics, unless you are talking about food security. Which in the case of the Emerald Isle, referencing the Global Food Security Index, Ireland is ranked 2nd as the most secure country in the world. Our agricultural industry is capable of feeding 35 million mouths which is 7x our current population. Chew on that Peter.
The first main issue Peter reckons Ireland will face relates to demographics. If you read any of Peter’s other works, you will see the majority of his arguments are anchored on the demographics of a country collapsing i.e. there being more old people than there are young people. He then compares Ireland to China and South Korea which is a wildly misleading comparison to say the least.
I agree that the changes and pressure ensuing from aging and shrinking population will cause some pain, but to suggest our nation will “flame out” over the next 30 years as a result is a stretch.
Ireland has the second youngest median age of all EU countries at 38.8 and has the 5th highest birth rate in the EU. The trend of slowing population growth in developed countries is a global issue. However, unlike our Chinese or Korean counterparts, Ireland has a long tradition of migration. This is a proven effective tool that can be used to offset the imbalances of changing demographics by propping up the working / tax-paying segment of our population.
I must also highlight here that South Korea is one of the most ethnically homogeneous societies in the world with 99% of inhabitants having Korean ethnicity. The equivalent percentage for Ireland is ~82%. This shows we are already trained in the practice of receiving people into our country, whereas South Korea is not. So if a future need arises to boost the working population to grease the wheels of pension payments to all of the old folks, I would argue we are far better positioned than a country like South Korea.
As for comparing Ireland to China’s woes, this is a massive overreach. My earlier article “President Xi is pinged” says all that needs to be said here.
Next up, Peter’s second point regarding Ireland being nothing but a bridge for the UK / US / EU. He throws out the unsubstantiated hypothetical statement, “if the UK is going to negotiate its own deals, then it's going to have independent access to all of these places. And all of a sudden the bridge that is Ireland doesn't matter so much.”
Peter’s point would have more substance if;
A) if Ireland was completely dependent on trade with the UK and,
B) he made this video in 2016.
Considering the fact the UK is now our 3rd largest export partner at 11%, the level of exposure here is limited. This hasn’t been by chance either. In the early ‘90s, Ireland relied on the UK for over 30% of its exports. Since then, Ireland has successfully decoupled from its historic trading partner and diversified its trading partners. So even if the UK were to negotiate superior deals and geopolitically-ghost the Irish nation, we would survive.
The Brexit vote was in 2016 and we are about to step into 2024, just shy of a decade later. All the talk in 2016 of Britian gaining the ability to “negotiate its own trade deals” has come to sweet fuck all us Irish have to worry about.
The UK is on its 5th Prime Minister since the vote, only 8 years after the fact. Check the headlines now and all you will see is the UK is busy tying itself into knots trying to negotiate a deal to ship migrants off to Rwanda, which does nothing to impact the Irish economy. Even if the UK was to agree some trade deal with the US, US companies would still need a middleman to access the Single Market of the EU. Let them at it, in the meantime Ireland will continue to carry on doing what we do best - courting business and trade into our nation as we stand as the only English speaking nation remaining in the EU.
Ireland was elevated to being one of the richest countries per capita through an openness to host and conduct business. Our ecosystem is anchored to the EU. Unless we decide to cut this anchor through an “Irexit” and leave the EU, we will continue to be the prime location for many Western firms wanting to have a presence in the EU market.
The last economic point Peter raises is just as daft as the ones before it. He states, “Ireland, like many other places needs to reinvent itself, at least find a fundamentally new model because the one that they followed very successfully for the last half century is gone.” I don’t know what Peter has been smoking here, but he clearly needs to lie down.
For a small country, Ireland punches well above its weight. On par with world heavyweights, Ireland is a global leader in many industries that other countries would only dream of hosting such as semiconductors, tech, aviation, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, social media and financial services.
Either Peter refused to research anything on Ireland that occurred after the ‘80s, or he is hallucinating on what industries are at the forefront of human development. He has published many videos outlining the importance of semiconductor technology which makes his point on Ireland contradictory. Don’t believe me? Take it from the CEO of Intel, Pat Gelsinger, when, a few months ago he referred to Ireland as the “silicon isle” while stating “Ireland is the centre of the semiconductor ecosystem”.
Peter also tries to slip in an unfounded reference to Ireland no longer qualifying for EU funds. He does not care to elaborate further on this point, but either way it won’t take long to debunk; Ireland is a net contributor to the EU. If this wasn’t the case and Ireland received more from the EU than it contributed, there would be grounds to exercise caution as any shifts in the status quo of the EU would have an outsized effect on the Irish economy. However, Ireland is pulling its weight which means we are much more solid footing than Peter tries to suggest.
Maybe he mixed up “IRE” with “POL” when doing his intensive research for the video… but let’s just move on.
Now for the strategic side of things.
I agree with Peter’s point on the Irish lobby in Washington being stronger than the Israeli lobby. So considering the US are refusing to condemn the ongoing genocide by Israel on the Palestinians, its safe to say the Americans would be willing to go to extreme lengths to have our back should we need it. Ancestorial connections are a powerful thing. Factoring in geostrategic issues like the fact Ireland is the nearest outpost overlooking the entire eastern coast of America and its capital Washington DC – there is a natural mutual interest for maintaining a two-way cordial relationship.
Peter repeatedly refers to an undefined situation whereby the Brits “are going to start acting like Brits again”. This point is a bit of a headscratcher.
If there was a geopolitical falling out between the US and UK, Ireland’s geopolitical standing would only increase. The US would view us as a counterbalance to the UK’s projection of power onto the Atlantic and hence onto their doorstep. And that’s assuming the UK make a move for our island. While the British have a long coloured history of getting their hands dirty this side of the Irish sea, that is a complicated history which we have largely put to bed through the Good Friday Agreement and subsequent decades of a mutual beneficial hospitable relationship.
I struggle to fathom a situation whereby the political will builds up in Westminster to launch an assault on our little island. We do not have any offensive or defensive military apparatus to challenge the British regional hegemony, nor will we ever. I maintain the view that Ireland has effectively “open-sourced” our military deterrence. Our culture has developed around the idea of resisting oppression, to the point that it is in fact celebrated. Look at the record breaking turnout for the Wolfe Tones at Electric Picnic this year. Most countries reach for nuclear weapons to establish strategic military deterrence. The Irish? We gather in a field in Co. Laois and throw our weight behind an Irish rebel band. How’s that for culture, Peter?
If anyone understands this, it’s the Brits. As such, Ireland’s role on the geopolitical stage will remain simply as a voice for calm and peace. Void of a militaristic threat, Peter’s argument hinges on a military power invading a pacifist country. Simply put, it would be more trouble than it’s worth. While I can quantify the “trouble” (ooh, ah, up the Ra)… I struggle to grasp any such equivalent for the “worth”.
All this is not to say that Ireland is perfect. There are many issues that need sorting out, housing being the most obvious. But lets not get ahead of ourselves here and instead focus on matching square-pegs with square-holes and round-pegs with round-holes.
Speaking of round-holes, do us all a favor Peter and take that square-peg of yours and shove…
I’ll leave it there. Happy Christmas lads. Subscribe below. Good luck.
Peter needs to lay off the Colorado wacky backy. He tries to oversimplify things and in doing so never truly gives an accurate nuanced opinion. Fair play for 10-7ing this fraud.