‘The sun never sets on the British empire’: a statement once the pride of chest-beating loyalists. In today’s world, what the British empire actually needs is for the sun to set so they can get some rest and restart with some new found energy and a change of strategy.
The British economy is currently in horrendous shape. What is happening now is what I view as a perfect storm (or shit show). A situation which did not happen overnight, but rather it has been brewing since the British empire peaked in size and begun a trajectory towards implosion at a gradually increasing rate.
Before I go to town on “Great” Britain and explain what I think could happen over the coming months / years, I will do as the queen did during the Irish famine and look the other way – to history.
As history has proven time and time again, all great empires come to a close.
Be it the Roman empire driven by Caesar to expand to escape issues at home.
Or the Macedonian empire which stretched from Europe to Asia lead by Alexander the Great which quickly unwound following his death.
Or the Mongol Empire which controlled ~16% of the earth’s landmass at its peak and gradually fragmented and dissolved thereafter.
History has a habit of repeating itself, innit?
Britain, more notably England, earned its place by taking what was not theirs to take. The colonial mindset of ‘we are better than you’ is deeply embedded in the psyche of the average geezer.
Indeed, this approach is often attractive in the world at large, as it yields self-serving quick gains with minimal investment and repercussions. This was seen as early as the 1840’s, when the British sent Irish wheat crop out of Ireland at a time of the potato crop failed, thereby injecting a famine into the veins of its smaller helpless neighboring nation.
It was shown in the 1945s when Britain invaded Egypt to get control of the Suez Canal.
Or the ill-gotten gains taken from India such as the Koh-i-Noor diamond.
Or launching the opium wars in China; getting the local population addicted to heroin in order to continue the export of tea back to the British motherland. The list goes on.
All of this pillaging nourished the ruling aristocrat class in Britain. Sprinkle in a few generations of upper class individuals in power who hail from the same few schools & closed societies (you know; Oxford, Cambridge and Eton). And finally, pour in a measure of entitlement and when stirred together, it all starts to taste like the sour cup of tea that is Brexit.
The vote to leave the EU bloc was largely communicated as a positive step towards freedom to renegotiate trade deals with sovereign authority to “take back control”.
Hindsight is an excellent tool, but at the time this nonsense was ongoing I couldn’t help but feel that people were overlooking the main word embedded in the statement – negotiate.
By the nature of contracts between 2 parties, generally speaking things are a zero-sum game. The better one side is, the likelihood its at the expense of the other side.
If you withdraw from hard earned contracts which were drawn up when the era of globalisation was beginning to gain momentum, intending to renegotiate a new contract at a time when countries are looking for strategic autonomy, what assurances do you have that your counterparty will accept worse terms for them?
The decision to leave the EU was one of a romantic idealisation for a time long-gone.
The pain will be felt for years, it will get much worse before it gets any better and in my view I can’t see the situation improving until there is a massive reset of their economy and approach to geopolitics.
The timing of the queen’s death is also key to this story. It restarted and reignited conversations around Britain’s controversial history. Countries like Canada, Australia and New Zealand are all asking themselves the same question – why do we have a picture of some old British noddy on our currency? Expect the questions around why the royal family are even a thing in today’s world to continue.
Timing is everything.
Couple this with the monumental f**k up by Liz Truss. The record-breaking PM (shortest time as PM, lol) attempted to give more to the rich by taking from the poor with her unfunded tax cuts in the so-called mini-budget. This sent the GBP currency and the gilt market into a frenzy when the markets came to the realization that these Brits are simply making worse decision after bad decision.
In such a short space of time, Brexit + Queen’s death + Liz Truss, is only going to make people wonder what’s so “great” about these guys?
Now to bring everything to present day and what I think might be coming around the corner.
London is the main net contributor of finances through tax income to the majority of the rest of Britain.
When the days of pillaging other countries wealth became no longer socially acceptable, London changed direction and became the butler for the guys that didn’t give a shite about social acceptability (and continued pillaging).
‘Butler to the World’ by Oliver Bullough goes into brilliant detail on how Britain became the servant to oligarchs, tax dodgers, kleptocrats and criminals. London earned fees upon fees servicing the legal and financial needs of the world’s bad guys.
The next time you are unfortunate enough to find yourself in London, scrap going on an open-top bus tour of the bollox that Britain wants you see – Buckingham palace, Trafalgar square & Oxford street. Puke.
Instead take the alternative Kleptocracy Tour where you will be brought around town to see the many properties owned by the world’s bad guys. A much more fitting representation of what London is all about.
This has created a precarious situation for the great empire. The engine room of the economy is fueled by dirty money, becoming ever-more localized in London and hence feeding the upper class ruling system. The rich and highly educated continue to stay in power within the conservative party who are only loyal to one true oath - keeping the gravy train rolling.
The poorest 10% of Ireland are 40% richer than the poorest 10% of Britain. A remarkable statistic considering the proximity of the two countries and the “head-start” Britain’s economy had by stepping on the heads of so many others.
The public sector is in disarray, nurses, midwives, ambulance drivers, teachers, mail workers and rail workers all organizing strikes for increased pay and working conditions
Rishi Sunak is currently tasked with fixing this mess. He recently visited a hospital in Croydon where he knelt down beside an elderly woman to ask had she been treated well by the nurses. She fired back at this question “They always do, it’s a pity you don’t pay them more”. She called you out, Rishi lad.
Inflation in Britain is running at upwards of 10%, giving in to the public sector demands of increased pay will only fuel more inflation in what would become a vicious cycle.
But what options does Sunak have? If he says no to their demands then he risks further unrest and a potential shutdown of the public sector. An outcome which would further exacerbate problems and likely oust him from power. Or if he says yes, he kicks the can down the road, likely causing that can to snowball and become ever more difficult to deal with.
Over the last 7 years, the nation has had 5 different prime ministers, all of whom are from the same conservative party. To deal with Britain’s issues I don’t see any other path other than a complete reset on the economy. More of the same will simply continue to make everything worse.
Whether this comes in the form of;
1) An IMF bailout,
2) A currency change,
3) A lurch to the political right with a complete pullback of public services (a move which would be political suicide for whoever the leader is),
4) A lurch to a more authoritarian government to quell unrest,
5) A breakup of the empire’s states (similar to the breakup of USSR)
we will soon find out.
Either way, things are going to get a lot worse for the British before they even begin to stabilize and improve. As the saying goes – the dildo of consequences never arrives lubed.
The sun is finally setting on this once great empire. And the sooner the British go home, go to bed, get some rest , the better. If they wait any longer it will get too dark, and we all know its much more difficult and even dangerous to find your way home after dark.