Svalbard is a group of islands most people have never heard of. It’s total landmass is slightly smaller than Ireland and it has no native population as pregnant women are obligated to leave a few weeks before their due date. It’s the world’s northernmost settlement, which usually if anyone has heard of it, it’s from recognizing it from accommodating the Global Seed Vault.
Svalbard is located relatively close to the North Pole, and as everyone knows, Santa Clause lives in the North Pole. The big lad has clearly done his due diligence and decided on the North Pole as his land of residency, because it is not land at all. The North Pole consists of a huge patch of frozen water and the law of the sea does not distinguish between frozen and fluid water. If he was to base himself on some sovereign land, he would be subject to the rules and regulations of that land.
The benefit of being in the North Pole - Santa can get away with paying no tax and likely paying less than minimum wage to his helpers.
The drawback of such legalities - the Arctic region is wide-open to jurisdictional claims (and coming soon.. fights) by neighbouring countries over who owns want.
Svalbard and the Arctic region are often overlooked, as at its surface, there’s nothing but ice and snow. However, beneath the surface exists some of the largest untapped oil and natural gas reserves on Earth.
The seemingly unimportant islands of Svalbard are on course to become one of the main focal points of geopolitics in the very soon years to come.
Svalbard has a peculiar legal status. It is somewhat recognized as a part of the sovereignty of Norway, however Norway does not own it. Under the Svalbard Treaty, it is an open house. Any citizen or company from any country are allowed to become residents and engage in commercial activities ranging from maritime to mining.
Norway claims that the treaty stops at 12 nautical miles from Svalbard’s shores. The remainder 188 nautical miles that make up the EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone), and all the resources within it, belongs solely to Norway. With about 100 Russian’s living on the islands, sharing it with other nationalities that include Chinese and Ukrainians, tensions have been rising. This is giving precedent to Russia to ramp up pressure on challenging Norway’s sovereignty of Svalbard under the guise of protecting the interest of its fellow Russian’s there.
In 2007, Putin sent a submarine over 4,000km below the frozen ice to plant a titanium flag on the seabed at the North Pole. Not that this meant anything at all other than massaging his own ego. As the Canadian foreign minister, Peter MacKay said at the time; "This isn't the 15th century. You can't go around the world and just plant flags and say: 'We're claiming this territory'".
In 2015, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Dmitry Rogozin, made an unannounced visit to Svalbard landing in a helicopter, despite being banned under sanctions from doing so, and tweeted “The Arctic is Russian Mecca”. This statement sent shivers down a lot of people’s necks as Dmitry is the same lad that orchestrated Russia’s land grab of Crimea the year before, in 2014, hence why he was under sanctions.
Another key part of the Svalbard Treaty aims to establish a demilitarization of the islands by prohibiting any military activities that are “for war-like purposes”. This is where things get even more tricky.
Svalbard hosts a ground satellite station which supports the majority of the world’s satellites and even the International Space Station.
Last week I wrote about Scotland’s strategic importance in guarding the GIUK Gap. Svalbard’s location means it could be used as an outpost to keep a close eye on movements from Russia’s Navy HQ in Severomorsk and over the entire Arctic region. This then places Svalbard in the crosshairs of a crucial geostrategic security concern.
Russia claims that this ground station is performing dual-use capabilities; both civilian and military uses by monitoring Russia’s navy. They argue this would be in breach of the Svalbard Treaty which outlines a demilitarization of the archipelago.
I would like to highlight that Russia also claims that the war on Ukraine isn’t actually a war, it is a “Special Military Operation”.
My geopolitical strategic advice to NATO, would be to claim Svalbard’s ground satellite station isn’t actually a ground satellite station at all – they are simply a collection of big snowballs sitting ready to make lots of big snowmen. Problem solved.
Putin does not want anyone keeping an eye on his military naval assets coming and going as much as he does not want anyone to see his browser history. The tiny islands of Svalbard are strategically placed to gather a vast range of such data.
At an Arctic forum in 2017, Putin stated that “Russia believes that there is no potential for conflict in the Arctic”. To me this meant the exact opposite - there is going to be conflict in the Arctic.
In January last year, just a few weeks before the Ukraine invasion, the world’s fastest internet cable connecting Svalbard to Norway along the seafloor was cut. It’s widely assumed that the likely culprit was Russia. This incident is eerily similar the Nord Stream undersea pipeline that was sabotaged a few months ago in September last year.
On top of these “once-off” disasters, a substantially further-reaching disaster is looming.
Climate change causing the planet to warm is an issue broadly unwelcomed by the majority of countries in the world. The degrees to which countries are willing to face down this issue and actually do something about it is indeed questionable. However one country that stands to benefit from a warming Earth, is Russia.
With recent innovative technological advancements in deep-sea drilling technology, there has been an explosion of renewed interest in the riches that lay under the ice in the Arctic. As the ice recedes further each year, the jockeying for position in the High North will grow.
Increasing the geopolitical stakes here is an additional opportunity for Russia.
Currently, the most efficient way to transport goods between Europe and Asia is to ship it southernly through the Suez Canal in Egypt, or alternatively take the long road and go around the bottom of Africa. In years soon to come, this status quo will shift dramatically. As the planet warms, the frozen waters off Russia’s northern coast that lead into the Arctic will free up. Allowing for a year-round shipping lane connecting Europe’s ports with Asia’s, shorter than what is current used. This polar sea route tracks along Russia’s 37,000km heavily militarized coastline. This scale of road-frontage to what will become a vital global trade artery, is what any Irish farmer can only dream of.
The Russian navy have been modernizing and preparing for the day they will be the gatekeepers of the Polar Silk Road. Any ship originating from a country that aligns with Russia’s views I’m sure will have no issue undertaking the trade route or receiving assistance along the way. For ships coming from not-so-friendly countries, 37,000km is a perilously long way to go while hoping your ship doesn’t break down or go astray.
This opportunity is seemingly inevitable at this stage with a runaway warming ecosystem that will play naturally into Russia’s hands. In this case they can sit back and wait for their time to come. The balance of power over controlling trade routes will slowly but surely move in their favor.
Right now, the military and geostrategic balance of power in the Arctic is heavily weighted for Russia. Arctic experts reckon it would take the West at least 10 years to match Russia militarily in the Arctic.
As the ice caps continue to melt, the tension around wee Svalbard and the rest of the Arctic will develop. Santa Clause best get thinking of skipping town and registering for tax somewhere soon.