Regarding the Straights of Malacca, it would not take even a few destroyers. One or two mine-layers would do the job. Actually, just the threat of mines would be enough because the insurance companies would pull coverage on all merchant ships in the area.
This way of thinking applies to all potential conflict in the area. For example, were the Chinese to invade Taiwan we don’t know who would win militarily. But we do know that the captains of all commercial ships in the area would turn around and look for business elsewhere. (They would also have received an email from their insurance company reminding them that they do not have coverage in a combat zone.)
Winston Churchill said that the only time he was worried that he might lose the war was when the Battle of the Atlantic was not going well. The Chinese must have a similar concern.
1. the one-child policy is everything, demographically. this is almost checkmate for an aging population that will be increasingly expensive to take care of
2. Xi has clearly chosen to consolidate personal power above being challenged to test the quality of his ideas
I don't see China becoming the dominant global economy whatsoever during the 21st century.
The vegetable who came up with that balloon stunt is the same man who signed off on Ryan Tubridy running the late late show for the last 13 years. Enjoyed the read.
Regarding the Straights of Malacca, it would not take even a few destroyers. One or two mine-layers would do the job. Actually, just the threat of mines would be enough because the insurance companies would pull coverage on all merchant ships in the area.
This way of thinking applies to all potential conflict in the area. For example, were the Chinese to invade Taiwan we don’t know who would win militarily. But we do know that the captains of all commercial ships in the area would turn around and look for business elsewhere. (They would also have received an email from their insurance company reminding them that they do not have coverage in a combat zone.)
Winston Churchill said that the only time he was worried that he might lose the war was when the Battle of the Atlantic was not going well. The Chinese must have a similar concern.
Much has been written about "China invading Taiwan" though none of them put forward any argument why China would want to do that.
Same hold for Suez and Panama
I agree emphatically with two observations:
1. the one-child policy is everything, demographically. this is almost checkmate for an aging population that will be increasingly expensive to take care of
2. Xi has clearly chosen to consolidate personal power above being challenged to test the quality of his ideas
I don't see China becoming the dominant global economy whatsoever during the 21st century.
The vegetable who came up with that balloon stunt is the same man who signed off on Ryan Tubridy running the late late show for the last 13 years. Enjoyed the read.